Likely Republican
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The Cook Political Report, the professional political prognosticator, has listed District 12, and my campaign in particular, as keeping this seat in Republican hands. A new report released yesterday says,
From Cook Political Report (Subscription Required)
FL-12: OPEN (R) – Central: LakelandLikely Republican. Five-term GOP Rep. Adam Putnam’s decision to run for Florida Agriculture Commissioner rather than seek reelection took Washington by surprise and had Democrats wondering whether they can make a play for this fast-growing central Florida seat, which spans exurban and agricultural communities close to Lakeland and only narrowly voted for McCain in 2008.
Republican operatives say state Rep. Dennis Ross has the inside track for the GOP nomination, especially after state Sen. Paula Dockery declined to run. A state legislator since 2000, Ross has lined up considerable institutional backing from the likes of former GOP Gov. Jeb Bush and others.
There was some talk that an “outsider” candidate would step forward, but Ross has bolstered his conservative credentials by touting his lonely opposition to a proposed insurance reform he refers to as “Florida’s version of the public option.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are lining up behind Polk County Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards, who previously served in the state House. Edwards styles herself a Blue Dog Democrat, and released a poll in November, conducted for her campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showing her leading Ross 46 percent to 42 percent. But, at this early stage in this open seat race, it’s highly unlikely such a high percentage of voters have well-formed impressions of both candidates. And, Ross has the money to define the race. Edwards posted an anemic $60,000 on hand at the end of the year to Ross’s $273,000.
Given the mood of the year, it’s difficult to see how Edwards has an opening here unless Ross is badly damaged in the August primary. So far, no credible GOP threat to Ross has materialized. (emphasis added)
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